Colombia: Colombian Congress endorses revised peace agreement

Following a two‑day voting process, on November 30th Congress validated the revised peace agreement signed on November 24th between the government of Juan Manuel Santos and the leftist Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) guerrillas. The overwhelming vote in favour was surrounded by some legal uncertainty and ongoing popular debate.

Analysis

The Unidad por la Paz multiparty coalition in Congress that supports Mr Santos's peace policy approved the peace transaction with 75 of 102 votes in the Senate and 130 of 166 in the Chamber of Representatives (the lower home). The opposition, led by the Centro Democrático and joined by some Partido Conservador dissidents, abstained, considering the process illegal.

Some experts in constitutional affairs noted that the congressional endorsement of the accord was not legally binding, even if the vote was legal. Lawmakers ratified the new peace transaction by approving a " presentation" (a political declaration of sorts, with no legally binding status) rather than a law. This generates some uncertainty about the legality of the validation process, although it seems that this will not create obstacles for Congress to start passing legislation required to implement the agreement.

Lawmakers are expected to begin discussing peace-related legislation in coming days, probably starting with an amnesty bill to pardon guerrillas not found guilty of human-rights crimes. Mr Santos is awaiting a Constitutional Court ruling that would allow Congress to pass peace-related laws through a fast-track mechanism. This exceptional procedure is part of the Acto Legislativo para la Paz (legal act for peace), a constitutional reform passed last June, but whose applicability is being questioned by some critics, given that the original peace transaction signed in September was rejected in a popular plebiscite on October 2nd.

The validation of the revised peace transaction in Congress on November 30th marks the so-called D-day, which is supposed to trigger the 150‑day deadline for some 6,000 FARC combatants to demobilise, surrender their arms and move temporarily to around 30 appropriate rural zones. However, there is some debate over at the same time as D-day actually begins, as some FARC leaders have implied that it will not start until the amnesty law is formally approved.

Impact on the forecast

The approval of the peace transaction and subsequent ongoing controversy is line with our expectations that some political tension and legal wrangling will continue, but that this will not impede congressional approval of related legislation or the gradual implementation of the agreements.