Pakistan Transportation Profile 2012

25/11/2010  Shipping Report Q4 2010

Pakistan National Shipping Corp (PNSC) has become the latest shipping line to join the trend of ordering dry bulk vessels, stating in June 2010 that it is looking to order five new-build bulkers. The relatively protected year that dry bulk operators experienced in 2009 as a result of Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has led to confidence in the sector, which has in turn led into a boom in dry bulk vessel orders in 2010. Although these orders, which are due online in 2011-2012, should be protected from any short-term industry shocks, we fear that the dry bulk shipping sector is in for a tougher H210, which could see the volume of these new-build orders tail off in the last few months of the year.

PNSC's order for five new bulkers will replace the company's tonnage that it sold for scrap in 2009. PNSC currently boasts just one bulker in its fleet, the 65,716 deadweight tonne (DWT) Kaghan. We  noticed  that PNSC's decision to expand its dry bulk operations follows the company's plan to expand its tanker fleet. We show that up until now the expansion of Pakistan's merchant shipping fleet has lagged behind that of other large Asian nations - the country is reported by the CIA World Factbook to have just 15 domestically registered cargo vessels, in addition to 19 ships registered abroad, just 6% of the fleet of neighbouring India.

We expect cargo handled at two of Pakistan's key ports, the Port of Karachi (POK) and Port Qasim, to have grown at a moderate to good rate in the financial year 2009/10. In general tonnage terms, POK is estimated to grow by 6.5% to 41.24mn tonnes, following a good 2008/09 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes grew an estimated 4.1% to 38.73mn tonnes that financial year). 2009/10 total volume at Port Qasim is expected to gain a similar 5.9% to 26.47mn tonnes. In 2008/09 volumes there decreased by 2.8% to 24.99mn tonnes.

At the Port of Karachi container movements are estimated to have grown by 12.5% to 1.406mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2009/10, while at Port Qasim they are estimated to be up by 10.2% to 751,200TEUs. While POK's growth was positive in both 2007/08 and 2008/09, Port Qasim suffered a negative growth in 2008/09, when box throughput at the port fell by 9.8%.

Affected by the global recession, Pakistan's total trade decreased by 9.5% in real terms in 2009, and we see a moderate 5.2% rebound in 2010, followed by 4.5% growth in 2011. This year imports will grow more strongly than exports in real terms (6.0% vs 4.5%).