Afghanistan: Agriculture in Afghanistan Business Report

Agriculture in Afghanistan Business Statement

Reference Date: 23-May-2011

The 2011 winter wheat output is expected to be lower than the previous harvests

The Afghanistan Wheat Policy Committee has indicated that 2011 wheat harvest is expected to be reduced from the year before mainly due to the reduction in the area planted to the crop, especially in the rainfed areas, precipitation deficiency during the early months and warmer temperatures during later part of the agricultural season. FAO preliminarily forecasts the 2011 wheat harvest at 4 million tonnes, some 12 % below 2010 level and 21 % below the record production in 2009. Heavy rain/snow fall during January and early February was received in the central and north-eastern areas of the country which to some extent compensated for the below normal precipitation since October 2010. Reportedly flash floods occurred near Herat in the west. Spring wheat was planted in March-April.

In 2010, the winter wheat production was officially estimated at 4.53 million tonnes, about 11 % below the previous year’s record crop but some 15 % above average. The reasonably good harvest was due to the generally satisfactory rainfall distribution, especially in the beginning and the ending part of the season, increased use of improved seeds and fertilizers and timely control of pests and diseases. However, some damage due to excessive rains in northeast region towards the end of the season was experienced. About 68 % of the production comes from the 46 % of area under irrigation. A significant increase in the area planted with fruit trees in 2010 was as well reported.

Total cereal output for 2010, is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes (including rice in paddy terms) some 9 % below the bumper crop of 2009. As a result imports of wheat and rice for 2010/11 marketing time(July/June) are expected to decline.

Wheat prices have been steadily rising since March-May 2010 in most markets

Prices of wheat, the country’s major staple, have been rising since May-June 2010, half due to the seasonal increase and half rise in the international prices. Nationally the in general consumer price inflation in April 2011, a year-on-year increase from April 2010, is estimated at 22 %. Bread and cereals prices rose even higher with annual inflation rate of 26.7 %.

Food security satisfactory in general but remains as a concern in certain pockets and for the low income population

The in general food security situation has been relatively satisfactory. However, reduced domestic wheat harvest, galloping inflation and generally high unemployment rates, are a cause for concern for the food security, especially for the low income people. Typically pockets of food insecurity exist in the country particularly in central and southeast parts of the country.

Reference Date: 11-February-2011

Prospects for 2011 winter wheat crop improved with precipitation in January and early February

Heavy rain/snow fall during January and early February was received in the central and north-eastern areas of the country. This should compensate for the below normal precipitation since October 2010, the start of the country’s major wet season. Reportedly flash floods occurred near Herat in the west. Temperatures remained below normal in January and they are estimate to fall below the frost kill level (below -18oC) next week in the northeast mountains and central highlands but snow cover is estimated to be adequate. Spring wheat will be planted in March-April. Hence the final outcome of wheat production will depend on the weather conditions in the next weeks and performance of rains during spring months.

Above average 2010 wheat harvest but below previous year’s record level

In 2010, the winter wheat production was officially estimated at 4.53 million tonnes, about 11 % below the previous year’s record crop but some 15 % above average. The reasonably good harvest was due to the generally satisfactory rainfall distribution, especially in the beginning and the ending part of the season, increased use of improved seeds and fertilizers and timely control of pests and diseases. However, some damage due to excessive rains in northeast region towards the end of the season was experienced. About 68 % of the production comes from the 46 % of area under irrigation. A significant increase in the area planted with fruit trees in 2010 was as well reported.

Total cereal output for 2010, is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes (including rice in paddy terms) some 10 % below the bumper crop of 2009. As a result imports of wheat and rice for 2010/11 marketing time(July/June) are expected to decline.

Wheat prices have been rising and bread prices have remained additional stable in recent months

Prices of wheat, the country’s major staple, have been rising since May-June, half due to the seasonal increase and half rise in the international prices. Wheat retail prices in January 2011 were up by 14, 18, 20 and 95 % from June 2010 prices in Kabul, Jalalabad, Kandahar and Herat markets, respectively. Herat is in the west bordering Iran, prices there seem to have soared due to constrained transport across the border.

Pockets of food insecurity remain

On the whole, following successive bumper wheat harvests, large carry-over stocks, reduced wheat imports requirements in 2010/11 (July/June) and satisfactory export availabilities in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the national wheat supply situation in Afghanistan is expected to remain satisfactory in marketing year 2010/11 (July/June). However, given the continuing low purchasing power of the people due to long standing conflicts, erosion of incomes and assets, pockets of food insecurity exist in the country, especially in central and southeast parts of the country

In 2010, the winter wheat, harvested in May-June and the spring wheat in September, is officially estimated at 4.53 million tonnes, about 11 % below last year’s record crop but some 15 % above average. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), this year’s reasonably good harvest was due to the generally satisfactory rainfall distribution, especially in the beginning and the ending part of the season, increased use of improved seeds and fertilizers and timely control of pests and diseases. However, recently some damage due to excessive rains in northeast region was reported. About 68 % of the production comes from the 46 % of area under irrigation. A significant increase in the area planted with fruit trees has been reported. The in general conditions of cereal and horticultural crops, inclunding animal health and animal production are satisfactory.

Total cereal output for 2010, is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes (including rice in paddy terms) some 10 % below the bumper crop of 2009. As a result imports of wheat and rice for 2010/11 marketing time(July/June) are expected to decline. However, in spite of favourable harvests, cereal imports during 2009/10 were over 2.5 million tonnes, including 700 000 tonnes of wheat. Some of the imports may be possibly for stock building purposes.

Pockets of food insecurity remain despite
On the whole, following successive bumper wheat harvests, large carry-over stocks, reduced wheat imports requirements in 2010/11 (July/June) and satisfactory export availabilities in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, the national wheat supply situation in Afghanistan is expected to remain satisfactory in marketing year 2010/11 (July/June). However, given the continuing low purchasing power of the people due to long standing conflicts, erosion of incomes and assets, pockets of food insecurity exist in the country, especially in central and southeast parts of the country.

Agriculture accounts for additional than 80% of the labor force from now on only about 6% of the land is planted in crops. Most of this consists of irrigated steppes and river valleys north of the Hindu Kush. Dry-farming methods enable some farming to be done in the additional humid river valleys and on the steppes.