Analyse of the sector 29/11/2010

High potential for growth, if there are no more conflicts

The travel and tourism industry recorded a positive performance in Kosovo in 2008. 2009 is expected to be a negative year due to the effects of the international crisis; however growth is forecast to return to positive from 2011. Some categories such as air transportation and travel accommodation in the capital Prishtina are already showing that it is possible to develop the industry, although, for this to occur, peacekeeping will be critical.

 

2008: the last year of political conflict?

 

The declaration of independence in February 2008 was a defining moment of the year concerning the political conflict with Serbia and the ethnic Serbian population. However, the second half of 2008 witnessed a much more peaceful time, with efforts being made to develop institutions that will provide lasting peace. If this process continues, economic development will become the main focus, replacing the political troubles.

 

Foreign investment needed for tourism development

 

Foreign tourists are still avoiding Kosovo, but foreigners do come to the country in the form of foreign military and civil personnel, businessmen and Kosovan-born people working abroad. At the same time, a small but growing number of well-off Kosovans are travelling abroad. A few dilapidated mountain resorts and religious sites have good potential to be developed but they will need large investments. The travel and tourism industry remains small and mostly nationally and privately owned: foreign investors are needed for the definitive development of the country as a travel and tourism destination.

 

Air transportation is crucial

 

As a landlocked country surrounded by unfriendly or poor neighbours, air transportation is of crucial importance to the development of the travel and tourism industry. Kosovo is still waiting for its national flagship carrier to develop but the number of passengers being served by Prishtina Airport is already impressive and is increasing fast.

 

Fast growth expected in the forecast period

 

Because of the small scale of the industry at the moment and the expected economic development in Kosovo, the travel and tourism industry is forecast to record one of the fastest growth rates in the region once the effects of the global crisis are over. Due to its development from a low base, even the establishment and promotion of one large tourist resort could result in the take-off of inbound tourism.